Kentucky Derby Sleepers 2018

03/03/21 – kdf and kentucky lottery looking for 2021 derby city enthusiast. 03/01/21 – 2021 pegasus pins available now at local retail outlets. 02/25/21 – derby festival mini & marathon participants will cross ohio river. 02/23/21 – first shipment of pegasus pins arrives.

It may not seem like it in the dead of winter, but many people are already discussing this May’s running of the Kentucky Derby. With that in mind, we have a look at the early 2019 Kentucky Derby sleepers. From this group, you just might be able to choose the horse that ultimately captures the fabled Run for the Roses.

The 2021 Kentucky Derby is the 147th renewal of The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports. Live odds, betting, horse bios, travel info, tickets, news, and updates from Churchill Downs Race Track. The 2018 Kentucky Derby is just days away, and the early analysis is rolling in. Experts from across the country are offering their picks and insights to inform betting strategies for a deep, 20. The 2018 Kentucky Derby was the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby, and took place on Saturday, May 5, 2018, in Louisville, Kentucky. The field was open to 20 horses, with a purse of US$2 million. The Derby is held annually in Louisville on the first Saturday in May, at the end of the two-week-long Kentucky Derby Festival. It is a Grade I stakes race for three-year-old Thoroughbreds at a distance of 1 1⁄4 miles,.

Horse racing enthusiasts don’t really need the calendar very much when it comes to thinking about the Kentucky Derby.

As soon as two-year-olds start to make their way to the track in the second half of the year, prognosticators have their eyes on the ones who seem to have the potential to win the most prestigious race of all. Even in the coldest months, they are keeping track of how these freshmen are developing.

That’s why it’s never really too early to begin to talk about the horses that could be surprising contenders. It isn’t until the first Saturday in May when the race takes place, but already the early 2019 Kentucky Derby sleepers are starting to line up.

Why is it so important to be able to spot these upset-capable contenders? Well, there is the simple pride gained from being such an astute judge of equine talent. But more than that, it’s about finding horses who could make for enticing value plays when it comes time to bet the race.

No major race is more wide-open than the Kentucky Derby, what with 20 horses crowding the racing surface, many of whom have never raced at the distance of 1 ¼ miles. Upsets are not at all uncommon. That’s why spotting sleepers can be an extremely valuable talent.

And that’s why we’re talking about some potential early 2019 Kentucky Derby sleepers. Not only will we identify a few who could be among the top competitors, but we’ll also explain why they might be flying under the radar a bit.

If nothing else, these are names to watch when spring arrives, many of the Derby prep races take place, and the field for the grandest race of all starts to take shape.

What Makes a Kentucky Derby Sleeper

It might not make sense that somehow there can be sleepers for a race that is still months away from taking place. After all, many horses will be derailed by injuries or poor performances from now to then. And there could be horses who no one has heard about to this point who might just surprise everyone. (Justify, anyone?)

Still, a good way to determine sleepers is to check out whenever the Kentucky Derby sets up a round of futures wagering. For those who are unaware, a futures wager in horse racing gives you the chance to bet on a horse to win well in advance of the race.

The risk in a futures wager is that the horse, for whatever reason, won’t actually make it to the race in question. Unlike a horse that is scratched on race day, you don’t get a refund from a futures bet if your horse doesn’t race. That means that you’ll come up empty, pretty much through no fault of your own.

The compensation for the bettor comes from the fact that the odds you can get from a futures bet are much more favorable than if you wait to bet the horse once the actual morning line odds are set the week of the race.

For example, most Kentucky Derby favorites go off at somewhere between even money and 3 to 1. But a futures bet will usually get you odds of much higher than that, even if you happen to pick one of the top choices.

For example, in the first 2019 futures pool held back in November, Game Winner, the 2018 Breeders Cup Juvenile Champ, was made the favorite by the bettors at 5-1. The co-second choices, Coliseum and Instagrand, settled at 10-1 apiece. Those are fetching odds for the three top choices.

Bettors can also go with “the field” in a futures pool. That term refers to any horse besides the specific ones who were officially listed. The field in the November pool stood at 6-5, which shows how many bettors believe that it will be a horse who either is making a late start in its career or hasn’t yet done anything special who will eventually emerge.

The next futures pool for the Derby is scheduled for February 8th to the 10th, giving bettors all over the world their next chance to speculate on possible early 2019 Kentucky Derby sleepers. (There will be two more futures pools subsequent to that, in March and April.)

With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at several horses who might be a little bit underestimated at this point. Any one of these has the capability to win it in May if things break right in the interim and on race day itself. See what their odds look like in the coming months of futures pools to see if you can take advantage.

Signalman

No horse was bet down more than this son of General Quarters in the first round of Futures betting. He dropped from 50 to 1 to 30 to 1. That is significant in a pool like that, where the tendency is for most horses to see their odds go in the other direction.

Trained by Ken McPeek, Signalman was a game long shot in back to back Grade 1 events as a two-year-old. He came from last to finish third in the Juvenile behind Game Winner. That leads us to believe that the longer distance of the Derby could be right up his alley.

It is interesting to see him get betting attention in the Futures Pool that eluded him during his actual races, where he never went off at shorter odds than 4-1. Could it be that the wise guys are just catching onto this closer? We’ll see how it shakes out.

Maximus Mischief

Back when it was called Philadelphia Park, Pennsylvania’s premiere thoroughbred track produced Smarty Jones, who captured the Derby and was not too far from a Triple Crown. Now the track is known as Parx Racing, but it has another Derby contender in this colt.

If you believe in speed figures, Maximus Mischief is the guy for you. In his second career start last year, he posted a 104 rating. That is the peak performance of anyone in the 2-year-old class, besting even Game Winner’s 103 in the Juvenile.

Question marks abound. The competition he faced at Parx in romping to two straight wins last fall was suspect at best; in the race where he posted the high number, there were only two other horses in the field. But there seems to be something special about this youngster, something that might just make him worthy of a Philadelphia flier of a bet.

King for a Day

At this stage in the game, you should be looking for connections and pedigree for determining factors in a possible sleeper. This colt’s Dad (Uncle Mo) and Grandad (Indian Charlie) had all kinds of talent, even if some bad luck kept them from displaying it during their 3-year-old campaign. And you don’t get more distinguished than Todd Pletcher in terms of big-stakes trainers.

But King for a Day has more than just intangibles going for him. His gutsy maiden victory at Belmont Park stamped him as one to watch. And although he came up short in his first graded stakes action, a wide trip was the major culprit, not any lack of talent.

Because he wasn’t one of the horses competing in the Juvenile, he might be overlooked. Yet the way he drew off from a challenge in that aforementioned maiden victory was impressive. As a matter of fact, it’s the kind of move that Derby winners make, which makes his 53-1 odds in the last Futures pool seem egregiously large.

Conclusion

These are three horses that have all the makings of early 2019 Kentucky Derby sleepers. Much can change between now and when they line up in May. But these three are a good place to start when you start looking off the beaten path for your potential sleeper Derby picks.

Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.

The Run For the Roses arrives on May 5th, giving horse racing bettors roughly two weeks to finalize their bets for this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Sleepers 2018 Fantasy

Leg one of the 2018 Triple Crown promises to excite, as a handful of horses push through the pack in an attempt to make history.

The beauty of the 2018 Kentucky Derby might be that is feels completely wide open. Usually, a consensus favorite has emerged by now, yet experts could argue for several horses to take first place.

Maybe that was going to be McKinzie, but now that Bob Baffert’s colt has been ruled out of the Triple Crown, this race is being looked at quite differently.

Perhaps that calms talk of a Triple Crown sweep, but it sure makes for interesting Kentucky Derby betting.

That’s to be taken two different ways, too.

Not only are bettors arguably getting insane value for the top favorites going into this year’s Kentucky Derby, but if they take a shot on a viable sleeper, their profit only balloons.

The Favorites

Bovada and other horse racing betting sites are still offering odds for 25+ horses for this huge event.

Everyone knows the field will shrink to 20 before the action gets started, which means there is still time to take advantage of crazy value from top to bottom.

Everyone here offers amazing value to win the Kentucky Derby outright, while that isn’t even factoring in other horses with compelling odds like Magnum Moon (+800 at Bovada), Good Magic (+750 at My Bookie) or Vino Rosso (+950 at Sportsbetting.ag).

This is a long line of talented horses with high-level training that absolutely have an argument to be picked to win this year.

The crazy part is without a clear-cut favorite right now, you could really piece together a case for horses with even longer odds to run away with the Triple Crown’s first stanza.

The Sleepers

What I find interesting is how much value bettors are looking at right now at the top portion of the field.

The field of 20 isn’t set yet and horses can be pulled or brought in within the next two weeks, but that probably isn’t going to change the obvious; nobody really knows for sure who will win the 2018 Kentucky Derby.

Even weirder is the fact that there are so many “favorites” that some very interesting horses like Bolt d’Oro and Good Magic are offering insane value.

While you’re probably better off lingering up top where the horse racing experts are, I still think there is a reason to believe someone nobody is really discussing could shock the world.

Here are five 2018 Kentucky Derby sleepers you may want to keep an eye (and bet)on:

My Boy Jack (+3500 at Sportsbetting.ag)

Shopping for value ahead of any big horse racing event is pretty key. My Boy Jack has solid odds just about everywhere, but you’re only getting him at a +2000 price at most horse racing sportsbooks.

At Sportsbetting.ag you’re getting a massive discount at +3500 and this may actually be a horse to fear in this race.

Nobody is going into May thinking My Boy Jack is a real threat to win, but with victories at Lexington and the Southwest Stakes, this could be a horse to wager on. Whether that’s a straight-up win or for My Boy Jack to place is up to you.

Solomini (+3000 at Sportsbetting.ag)

Here’s another horse that isn’t insanely high in anyone’s Kentucky Derby rankings this year, but isn’t exactly being ignored by the betting community, either.

You’ll find pricing hovering around the +2000-2500 range at most sites, but Sportsbetting.ag again offers awesome upside with inflated odds.

This Bob Baffert trainee has just one big win under his belt but has still fared very well against some of the best horses on the circuit.

More specifically, Solomoni finished third recently at the Arkansas Derby behind Magnum Moon, while it’s finished third or better in every single race it’s competed in.

Other races include losses to Good Magic, McKinzie, and Bolt d’Oro.

Obviously, Solomini getting big wins would vault it up the rankings, but the fact that this horse was at least in the thick of things is what makes it an exciting bet at +3000.

Noble Indy (+3000 at My Bookie)

As you work your way down, you’re dealing with true long shots.

Noble Indy is still a horse the majority of the top horse racing experts will at least discuss, though, and that’s because this Todd Pletcher gem has been highly competitive in limited action.

It’s resume really isn’t bad, as Noble Indy has scored three wins, with it’s worst loss coming in a third-place finish behind Bravazo in the Rise Star race.

Noble Indy’s crowning achievement thus far was a nice win at this year’s Louisiana Derby, where he showcased the ability to edge out some quality competition such as My Boy Jack and Lone Sailor.

This is a horse that would be further down the list (and rightfully so when you look at the odds), but it returns solid value and has to be on your radar.

Hofburg (+4000 at Sportsbetting.ag)

You can locate even more betting value via Hofburg, who has been discussed as a potential sleeper since finishing second to Audible at the 2018 Florida Derby.

Hofburg wasn’t able to catch Audible in the end, but this was still an impressive run and perhaps showed he’s a lot closer to one of the top Kentucky Derby favorites.

I’m not sure I can take one solid race and bet hard on Hofburg, but this is a talented horse that some experts think highly of. After pushing Audible in a big race, it’s at least worth a flier at this price.

Flameaway (+4500 at Sportsbetting.ag)

The last Kentucky Derby sleeper I really have my eye on is Flameaway, who is another horse that some experts seem to be ignoring.

Kentucky Derby Sleepers 2018 Draft

I’m really not sure why, seeing as Flameaway finished second at two big races this year, the Blue Grass Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby.

Those are two competitive runs in prestigious events, while it’s certainly worth noting that Flameaway also has a few big wins (namely the Sam F. Davis event) under it’s belt.

Consistency has been an issue for Flameaway (8th at the Breeders Cup Juvenile), but this is a horse that has shown strong against the likes of Good Magic and Vino Rosso.

It might not be a lock to win, but based on its recent competitiveness, it’s not a bad play at +4500.

Who Will Win the 2018 Kentucky Derby?

I’m not going to pretend to know who is going to win the Kentucky Derby. If Vegas clearly doesn’t have a clue, the entire process gets flipped on its side and it’s difficult to process the field.

That being said, I’m not overly into any of the bigger sleepers. If you want to take a flier here or there, yes, these sleepers do project as interesting bets. However, you want a wager that offers safety and upside.

Not only does trainer Mick Ruis offer a fun backstory, but I love the value associated with this horse.

There are other horses graded ahead of Bolt d’Oro right now, but all this horse has done is excelled in high-level events.

It’s worst finish was a third-place run at the Breeders Cup Juvenile last November, yet that came against quality competition in Good Magic and Solomoni.

Another second place run at a highly competitive Santa Anita Derby saw him finish behind only Justify, who is seen by many to be the top favorite going into May.

In its other races, Bolt d’Oro nabbed wins, the most impressive of which came at the Frontrunner Stakes in 2017 and the San Felipe Stakes in March.

Bolt d’Oro isn’t perfect, but he’s battled the best competition and has yet to perform really poorly. With a fun story backing this horse and extremely competitive odds (+900 at Bovada being the best), that is probably where I’d be putting my cash.

That being said, I can’t stress enough how wide open this year’s Kentucky Derby seems to be. Things could change within the new couple of weeks, but it’s likely that we go in without a clear favorite.

While that makes the betting process harder than you’d want, it at least makes for a very interesting race and ultimately, must-see television.